The 5 Stages of Violent Crime

(This article has been edited from the original written by Marc Mac Young and Dianna Gordon Mac Young) Please refer here for the full article

How do you identify if and when you are being set up for a crime? Are you aware that an assault on your person is only the 4th stage of a 5 stage process? How do you read the signs and make the rational decision to avoid the danger to you?

[ Ability-Opportunity-Intent ]   [ The Five Stages ]   [ Conclusion ]

Crime  is a process. It has both a goal and identifiable stages. Once you know about them they are obvious.

Imagine you are  driving to a friend's house. At first you have a wide choice of options to take to the general area. The closer you come to your destination, the more you *have* to turn here and go straight there. If you don't, you won't arrive at your destination.

Similarly, if a criminal intends to commit a crime his actions will become more predictable and more recognisable to someone who is aware of the process.  There are things he *has* to do. If they are present, you are in danger.

If these elements are not present, then there is no possibility of committing a crime. Therefore, you are not in danger.

Knowing the Five Stages system gives you an external set of standards to check someone's  behaviour against. If the collective behaviour is present, you are indeed in danger and need to take steps to ensure your safety. You need to do this no matter *what* that person is saying -- since his actions speak louder than his words.

There is no one thing that will tell you you are in danger. This is why the collective checklist is so reliable. A single element might be misconstrued or explained away. However, you will never get the collective presence accidentally. If they are all there, it is intentional.

Is this person ( or these people) acting in a manner consistent with a known threat? We are not mind readers, however we can make decisions based on actions in comparison to known dangers.

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As a quick rule-of-thumb, a crime needs a triangle of opportunity:

• A bility
• O pportunity
• I ntent

Ability : Does the person have the ability to attack you? Could this person successfully assault you, whether through physical strength, a weapon or strength of numbers? Many women underestimate male upper body strength and how vulnerable they are to being physically overwhelmed.

Opportunity : Does this person have the opportunity to attack you? Are you alone with him or even in an area beyond immediate help? Could anyone come to your assistance within twenty seconds or less? As many victims have found, you can be robbed in plain view or raped with people in the next room.

Intent : Mentally, is he geared to using violence to get what he wants. Is there motive?

Of the three, intent is the most difficult to define, yet it is vital for determining who is a threat. It is the literally the difference between going off with someone to talk and being raped.

The fastest way to figure out if you are in potential danger is to look for these three elements. If you see one, look for the others. If you see two out of three stop whatever else you are doing and pay close attention for a moment. If you see him trying to develop the third, withdraw from the situation to a safer area. This is easier than using physical violence. As you will soon see, opportunity often means staying in an area where someone could effectively use physical violence against you. If you do not see these elements then odds are you are safe.

The Five Stages of Violent Crime

Crime and violence are processes that take time to develop. The attack is not the first step, there are five distinct stages that are easily identified

1. Intent
2. Interview
3. Positioning
4. Attack
5. Reaction

During the first three, you can prevent an attack without the use of violence. These are where the criminal (or violent person) decides whether or not he can get away with it. He may want to (intent), but if he doesn't have the opportunity (position) he cannot succeed.

In the same vein, he's going to make sure he can successfully use violence against you (interview and positioning) before he commits himself to act. Once he is sure of his ability to succeed and has put you in a position where he can quickly overwhelm you, he will attack.

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Intent

This is where the person crosses a normal mental boundary. From this point, this person is mentally prepared to commit violence in order to get what he wants. Often a person who has decided to commit a physical assault is either looking for an excuse to attack or is trying to hide their intentions until they are in position.

Intent can be pre-planned or an emotional reaction to the circumstances. It can either be a calculated act (as in a criminal assault) or something else. It is the something else that is the most confusing to the untrained person. However, even then it does follow a predictable pattern. The trick is to not get caught up in the current yourself so you don't realise what is happening until too late.

Violence is both a psychological and physiological extreme. Before someone is ready to commit it, he has to have moved into this mental or emotional state. Violence doesn't "just happen out of nowhere." Even a habitually violent person will have to mentally prepare himself. It may happen very quickly, but it is not instantaneous. Only in cases of severe mental instability will a person be able to instantly "flash" into violence and such a person would almost certainly be locked up in a mental ward.

It might appear that violence suddenly comes from nowhere, however that is not the case. It was just a matter of you not recognising the danger signals.

A series of specific circumstances have to have been put in place. When they are in place, violence occurs, and acts such as getting drunk or angry are used as an "excuse" for committing violence.

Knowing about these mental processes serves as an early warning system. If someone shows up in the wrong place, the wrong time and in the wrong state of mind, something is amiss. It is suspect, and if a normal situation begins to spin out control, start looking for the danger signs.

Fortunately, despite the surface appearances many times there is enough "non-verbal leakage" coming from an attacker to warn you that something is amiss. Learn to trust your feelings. Often it is your subconscious recognising the physiological danger signals he displays. When your alarms go off, even if the situation looks normal, start looking for the next two stages to develop.

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• Interview

This is where the criminal decides if you are safe to attack.

The assailant's safety is a critical factor in deciding whether or not to attack. "Can I get away with it?" is a major motivation for what people decide to do. Hence the interview.

This is one interview you want to fail. If you do fail, the assailant decides that he cannot successfully or easily attack you. Then if he is a criminal, he will proceed to seek easier prey. In the case of an emotionally upset individual, he will change tactics. For example instead of physically assaulting you he will proceed to stand back and proceed to verbally abuse you. This allows him to 'win' without putting himself at physical risk.

There are five basic types of interviews. The one a criminal uses depends more on his personal style than anything else.

• Regular - This is the most common form of interview for muggers. The criminal will approach you under the guise of normalcy, i.e., needing information or small item (e.g. matches). This is a distraction. While he is talking, he is not only getting in position to attack, but a) checking your awareness about what he is doing and b) your commitment to defending yourself. Say "no" and insist on him keeping his distance. Both muggers and stranger rapists often use this technique.
   
• Hot – Hot interviews are sudden and unexpected emotional blitzkriegs against you. They just "pop out of nowhere." You are minding your own business one minute, and the next you have a threatening, obscenity-spouting, screaming person charging down on you. The success of this strategy relies on you not being accustomed to dealing with extreme emotional violence and reacting in a stunned and confused manner. You must be willing to immediately shift into an extreme of physical violence to fail such interviews. Paradoxically, if you can immediately display this commitment, the attacker will often abort.
   
• Escalating - Unlike a hot interview, which starts out immediately hostile, an escalating interview starts out normally but it rapidly turns hostile. The person or people test(s) your boundaries by escalating outrageous behaviour. Every time he is not slapped down (i.e., he is successful), his behaviour becomes more and more extreme until finally he attacks. This is very common interview for date rapists. It is also common when you walk into the middle of a group of loitering young thugs, what "supposedly" starts out with them "just messing with you" escalates into a robbery or assault. Sometimes both.
   
• Silent – A silent interview is when a criminal puts himself in a position to observe you. He may never speak until the attack, but he has been watching all along. He may position himself out of sight in a parking structure and follow you. Or he may make his presence known and decide to attack if you show fear of his presence.
   
• Prolonged - An interview can take anywhere from mere moments (hot) to weeks (prolonged). Prolonged interviews are often combined with other types Being stalked is prolonged escalation. A serial rapist can silently watch a victim for days. Whereas a bunko scam would be prolonged regular interview while the con artist attempts to win your trust. With prolonged interviews, the intent is seldom obvious from the beginning.

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• Positioning

This is the criminal putting himself in a place where he can successfully attack you. A criminal (or even a violent person) doesn't want to fight you; he wants to overwhelm you. To do this, he has to put himself in a position where he can do it quickly and effectively. Positioning is the final proof. Someone trying to position himself to attack removes all doubt that the situation is innocent.

A key point of positioning is "fringe areas." You will seldom, if ever, be robbed or raped in the middle of a crowd. A fringe area is where you are close to people, but out of range of immediate help. You won't be mugged in the mall, but will be in the parking lot or bathrooms. ATMs, parking lots, stairwells, public bathrooms and sidewalks should be considered potential danger areas. Even a separate room in a crowded house can constitute a fringe area, as many women who were raped at parties can attest. Being alone with someone in a fringe area is a major part of the opportunity element of the triangle of opportunity (AOI).

• Closing – The most basic form of positioning is simply walking up to the victim. The closer a criminal gets, the greater his ability to overwhelm and control. Five feet is the closest you should allow someone you don't trust to approach in a fringe area – whether you know him or not. If the person insists on coming closer after you have warned him away, he has clearly announced that his intentions are not good.
   
• Cornering/trapping - This is the second most basic form of positioning and the most common. He approaches you from a direction that traps you between himself and a large object, like a car or wall. This also entails his putting himself between you and an exit.
   
• Surprise – This is your classic jump-out-of-the-bushes type of position. The criminal puts himself in a place were you don't see him (or if you do, it is at the last minute). From this position, he can easily step out and attack. Once you know these locations, this kind of positioning is easy to foil
   
• Pincer – Professional criminals often work in packs, so you will not face just one. The most common manoeuvre for two criminals is the pincer. One criminal circles around while the other distracts you. You should always be aware of individuals splitting up when they approach you. Another trap is when two characters face each other in a narrow walkway in such a way that you must pass between them. A third trick is to spread out along a way, when you pass one he starts following you, while the other waits down the way.
   
• Surrounding – This is the most common ploy of a pack (three or more). Again, one will distract you while the others surround. They can swarm around you, but most often they will casually drift. A serious danger sign is when a group is spaced out along the wall in a walkway. When you are at midpoint, it is simple for the wings to fold in.

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• Attack

The attack is the criminal/violent person using force, or the threat of force to get what he wants. The triangle of opportunity is complete and the assault -- or the threat of assault -- occurs. The first three stages have been achieved, and there is no reason for the criminal not to use violence to get what he wants.

Many robberies and rapes are committed with the simple threat of or display of violence. A violent emotional outburst won't physically harm the victim, but clearly indicates that unless he/she co-operates with the tantrum thrower, the victim will be hurt. Weapons can be displayed to convince you to co-operate. Other attacks are indeed outright physical assaults. Such attacks can come both with and without warning. In the most extreme it means the criminal simply walking up to someone, pointing a weapon and pulling the trigger.

Unfortunately, there is no way to determine which one you will encounter. And faster than a snake striking, an attack can turn from one type to another. What was a threat a second before, can explode into deadly violence.

Reaction

Reaction is how the criminal feels about what he has done. In the aftermath of robbing someone the criminal decides on a whim to shoot you -- despite the fact that you have co-operated utterly and offered no resistance. This also can be where a robber suddenly decides to rape his victim. Of all the reactions, one of the most consistently dangerous occurs among rapists. If the rapist feels that the rape did not empower him as he thought it would, he often turns violent. Nearly 80 percent of women seriously harmed by rapists are hurt after the actual sexual assault.

In any circumstance, until the criminal is completely out of your sight, you are at risk of his reaction even if you have totally co-operated. The unpredictability of the criminal's reaction is another reason why it is far easier to avoid violence than it is to try to safely extract yourself from the middle of it.

 

• Conclusion

These five stages are inherent within crime and violence. What is important to realise is that the first three stages might not occur in that particular order. A violent and selfish person may suddenly find himself with the perfect opportunity/ability to commit a rape, and suddenly the intent appears. There was no conscious initial decision, but the circumstances developed. Due to an intrinsic flaw in his personality, he can decide to act in a violent manner. This is why you always need to check for ability, opportunity and intent (AOI).

By foiling him instead attempting to contest him, you can avoid using violence in all but the most extreme circumstances.

Two major problems exist regarding self-defence. The first is knowing when to use it. How do we know when is the right time? How can we be sure we are not overreacting or jumping at shadows? We should all have reservations about using force. Much of this confusion is alleviated by having a proven and external set of standards to compare a situation against. If you don't see the triangle, it is not the time to use violence.

When the asked how you knew you were in immediate danger you had better have a better answer than "he gave me a dirty look".

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